Proyeksi Ekspor-Impor Non-Migas Indonesia ke Afrika Selatan

Authors

  • Kumara Jati Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan, Kementerian Perdagangan
  • Aziza Rahmaniar Salam Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan, Kementerian Perdagangan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31334/trans.v1i1.143

Keywords:

Non-Oil and Gas Export-Import, Indonesia, South Africa, Structural Time-Series Model (STSM)

Abstract

This study analyzes the projection of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports and imports to South Africa. Indonesia’s trade policy needs to take into account the seasonal and irregularity conditions of trade between Indonesia and South Africa. The The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the projected volume and value of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports to South Africa from 2018 to 2027 tends to stabilize with an upward trend. The relevant authorities need to pay more attention to the seasonal trade patterns where there is usually a fluctuation of exports and imports at the beginning and end of the year from Indonesia to South Africa. In addition, relevan stakeholders also need to anticipate if there is turmoil in overseas markets, especially South Africa because it can affect the trade between the two countries and the Indonesia economy in general.

References

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Halwani, R.Hendra. (2005). Ekonomi Internasional dan Globalisasi Ekonomi. Ghalia Indonesia. Bogor.

Harvey, A.C. dan Shephard, N. 1993. Structural Time Series Models. Handbook of Statistics, Vol.11, Elsevier Science.

Harvey, A., & Peters, S. (1990). Estimation procedures for structural time series models. Journal of Forecasting, 9(2), 89–108. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980090203

Helpman, E. and P. Krugman. (1991). Trade Policy and Market Structure. Cambridge, MIT Press.

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Published

2018-07-31

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1: Juni 2018

Section

Articles

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