Usulan Kebijakan Rantai Pasok Susu Segar dalam Mendukung Ketahanan Pangan Nasional dengan Pendekatan Sistem Dinamis

Abstract

(Leveraging System Dynamics for Sustainable Fresh Milk Supply Chain Governance: Policy Implications for National Food Resilience)

Penelitian ini mengembangkan model sistem dinamis untuk mengatasi tantangan pasokan susu segar nasional yang masih bergantung pada impor, berisiko melemahkan ketahanan pangan. Tahapan meliputi identifikasi variabel (ketersediaan susu segar, populasi sapi perah, impor susu), pembuatan causal loop diagram, stock flow diagram, formulasi model, verifikasi-validasi (AME 0,00698 ≤ 5%), dan perancangan skenario. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan variabel impor dan sapi produktif paling berpengaruh. Dirancang tiga skenario. Skenario 1(impor susu 50%): impor 93.820 ton (2030). Skenario 2 (impor susu 20%): impor 48.426 ton (2030).  skenario 3 (peningkatan sapi produktif) 1.993.430 ekor (2030). Skenario 2 dan 3 paling optimal. Skenario 2 meminimalkan impor, sedangkan Skenario 3 meningkatkan produksi dalam negeri sesuai target pemerintah.

Abstract

This study developed a dynamic system model to address the challenges of the national fresh milk supply, which is still dependent on imports and risks weakening food security. The stages include variable identification (fresh milk availability, dairy cow population, milk imports), causal loop diagram creation, stock flow diagram, model formulation, verification-validation (AME 0.00698 ≤ 5%), and scenario design. Simulation results show that the variables of imports and productive cows are the most influential. Three scenarios were designed. Scenario 1 (50% milk imports): imports of 93,820 tons (2030). Scenario 2 (20% milk imports): imports of 48,426 tons (2030). Scenario 3 (increase in productive cows): 1,993,430 cows (2030). Scenarios 2 and 3 are the most optimal. Scenario 2 minimizes imports, while Scenario 3 increases domestic production in line with government targets.