Usulan Kebijakan Rantai Pasok Susu Segar dalam Mendukung Ketahanan Pangan Nasional dengan Pendekatan Sistem Dinamis

Penulis

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31334/transparansi.v8i2.5335

Abstrak

Penelitian ini mengembangkan model sistem dinamis untuk mengatasi tantangan pasokan susu segar nasional yang masih bergantung pada impor, berisiko melemahkan ketahanan pangan. Tahapan meliputi identifikasi variabel (ketersediaan susu segar, populasi sapi perah, impor susu), pembuatan causal loop diagram, stock flow diagram, formulasi model, verifikasi-validasi (AME 0,00698 ≤ 5%), dan perancangan skenario. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan variabel impor dan sapi produktif paling berpengaruh. Dirancang tiga skenario. Skenario 1(impor susu 50%): impor 93.820 ton (2030). Skenario 2 (impor susu 20%): impor 48.426 ton (2030).  skenario 3 (peningkatan sapi produktif) 1.993.430 ekor (2030). Skenario 2 dan 3 paling optimal. Skenario 2 meminimalkan impor, sedangkan Skenario 3 meningkatkan produksi dalam negeri sesuai target pemerintah.

Biografi Penulis

Unduhan

Diterbitkan

2025-12-20

Terbitan

Vol 8 No 2: Desember 2025

Bagian

Articles

Lisensi

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